30 Kasım 2012 Cuma

DAV

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http://www.dav.org/veterans/documents/PTSDBrochure.pdf There are many resources for police that are not specifically police related.  One of them is the Disabled American Veterans organization.  They have been around almost 100 years.  One of the documents on their website is a brochure about Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.  Police often face the same kinds of stress faced by soldiers.  They have friends killed at work.  There are terrible accidents in their work environment.  They have to face dangerous, unusual and uncomfortable situations over a long period of time. The brochure indicates these four factors that could indicate PTSD: "This could include: • Not being able to get memories of the traumatic event out of your mind. • Dreams about the event. • Becoming anxious, angry or depressed when you are exposed to cues that remind you of the event. • Feeling guilty about the event."  If you or a co-worker have these symptoms, then you should consider treatment for post traumatic stress, that's the view from the Hysterical Right Wing.

Crime Scene

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In November, 2009 a US Army, Major went to Fort Hood, Texas and opened fire on a group of US Army soldiers.  They were planning to deploy to fight the War on Terror.  The attacker killed 13 people and injured 32 others.  One of the injured had six gunshot wounds.  Area police officers responded and took the suspect into custody.

Thirteen murder victims.  That is a large number of victims and a huge crime scene.  Treat a massive crime scene like this as both thirteen separate crime scenes and a single crime scene.  The prosecution should be able to prosecute each individual victim as a separate crime.  A smart prosecution will prosecute a few of them at a time to be able to prosecute a second time on new victims if there is some kind of procedural error that prevents a conviction.

Have thirteen separate teams and another to coordinate the overall crime scene.  Call for whatever resources you need to make sure that you have enough evidence collected to convict the suspect for every murder.  Don't assume one conviction will be enough.  Often multiple convictions are best to insure a major suspect will stay in prison for a long time, or that the suspect will get the death penalty.  Careful crime scene investigation is well worth the result; that's what the SGT Says.

Traffic Direction

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Traffic direction is a skill that is easily learned.  There are several principles, the first one is the safety of yourself and the drivers.  Use traffic cones, barriers, lights and road flares to help block off lanes and direct cars where you want them to go.  If possible park a patrol car with all the lights on where it can alert drivers to your location.

Stand in a location where you are readily visible.  Wear a hat if possible to make you look more official.  Wear white gloves to make your hands more visible.  At night use a flashlight with a cone over the end of the light to make it more visible.

When in doubt, make everyone stop in each direction.  Take your time and direct cars to go where you want them to go.  Try not to let anyone sit too long in any direction.  Watch for emergency vehicles or tow trucks so that you can clear cars out of the way as necessary.  Take extra care around pedestrians.  Traffic direction is important and with a little practice you can do it well; that's what the SGT Says.

When Clowns Attack

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http://www.wtsp.com/video/default.aspx?bctid=1977163976001

An officer is dispatched to a report that a local "activist" dressed as a clown is squirting people with a squirt gun.  The officer responds and when he speaks the the subject a fight ensues and they both go to the ground.  The officer manages to get the upper hand and the suspect is taken into custody.  A local man sees the incident and rather than help the cop in a potentially life threatening incident video tapes the incident and sends the tape to the TV news because it's funny.

A back up officer arrived only a couple minutes later than the first officer.  When responding to incidents that involve local "activists" officers should approach the subject at least in pairs so that there is at least one witness to the incident.  People like that often will say or do things that are confrontational because they enjoy the publicity of an arrest or the possibility of a lawsuit for excessive force. The first officer arriving could wait and observe the behavior before making contact.  He could then approach with a partner and lessen the likely hood of a physical confrontation.

Sometimes when facing "activists" it can be very helpful to audio or video record the incident.  When the officer acts properly the tape can be used to impeach the suspects behavior.  The vast majority of time officers act in a manner that is reasonable and so the video will often show that behavior.  This video shows the officer on the ground with the "clown" on top of him.  The officers gun was exposed, but the officer kept fighting and eventually gained the upper hand.  Never underestimate the clowns you have to deal with on the street; that's what the SGT Says.

Noise Complaint

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http://connecticut.cbslocal.com/2012/11/21/woman-calls-cops-on-salvation-army-workers-for-ringing-bells/

A woman called the police to complain that the Salvation Army was ringing their bells and disturbing her peace.  When on patrol not every call ends in a gun battle or a car chase.  Most are pretty routine and many verge on the stupid.  As peace officers responding to this type of call is certainly something we want to address.  While on the face of it, this call is a silly waste of an officers time.

What happens if we don't resolve the problem and the complainant decides to take matters into their own hands and assaults the Salvation Army worker or worse still, gets a gun and shoots them?  Unfortunately these are considerations in today's society.  The main issue here is to resolve the problem if possible and avoid having to go out to this problem again and again.  I certainly would not want to make an arrest, or issue a citation based on a single complaint of noise on an otherwise lawful activity.  I would suggest several things that might help.  The first thing is to meet with the reporting party and find out their side of the problem and particular hours or days when it is the worst.  Then meet with the Salvation Army worker separately and ask if there is some way to mitigate the noise. 

Perhaps they can move a few feet down the street.  Sometimes even a few feet of movement may make a big difference on how sound is perceived.  If you are unable to resolve the problem, perhaps you can refer the complaining party to the Salvation Army workers supervisor or management for further follow up.  Sometimes if everyone seems otherwise reasonable you can have both parties discuss options that might resolve the problem.  Often charities have to get a permit to solicit money, the reporting party may be able to consult with the agency that issues the permit and seek relief that way.  The key here is even if you can't resolve the problem, at least give the complaining party the feeling that they have other, non-violent and lawful options and that you did something to assist them; that's what the SGT Says.

29 Kasım 2012 Perşembe

Susan Rice - the 'pushy woman' or comeuppance?

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Susan Rice the United States' ambassador to the United Nations faces a rough road to succeed Hilary Clinton as the secretary of state. Two old white, and decidedly with a right wing tinge, Republican senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham have vowed to defeat the once expected nomination by the president.
At first I suspected race, but President Bush had his Rice who was a very competent secretary of state. But apparently she knew how to play with the big boys. Susan Rice doesn't. [Backed by Obama, sharp-tongued Susan Rice battles critics].
The vehicle to her overthrow is her comments relating to the death of the U.S. ambassador to Libya. But even a cursory analysis demonstrates a lack of substance in the effort to fault her.  However, a good view of her inability to play nice is found in the comments by other U.N. diplomats.
"Diplomats on the 15-nation U.N. Security Council privately complain of Rice's aggressive negotiating tactics, describing her with terms like "undiplomatic" and "sometimes rather rude." They attributed some blunt language to Rice - "this is crap," "let's kill this" or "this is bullshit."
"She's got a sort of a cowboy-ish attitude," one Western diplomat said. "She has a tendency to treat other countries as mere (U.S.) subsidiaries."
The ugly American. Arguably she is getting her just desserts. It is not enough to be competent to succeed - getting along or at least not being abrasive is necessary in the long haul.
And while it might to easy to label her as 'pushy' but not male counterparts, people who are pushy, over-aggressive, male or female, that see themselves as God's gift - find themselves without supporters they need at the time it would benefit them the most.
Stepping on others on the way up the ladder of success has its comeuppance.

Adidas' "food stamps" in Indonesia

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Companies like adidas with its USA headquarters in Portland have no affection for the workers that make adidas products. In Indonesia,  "[t]he owner of PT Kizone fled Indonesia in Janaury 2011 without paying workers $3.3 million in legally mandated severance. More than 2,800 workers are affected."
From Workers Rights Consortium: "an independent labor rights monitoring organization, conducting investigations of working conditions in factories around the globe." Their "purpose is to combat sweatshops and protect the rights of workers who make apparel and other products."
"The factory produced for Nike, adidas, the Dallas Cowboys, and other brands. Nike has paid the workers $500,000 and persuaded Green Textile, an intermediary that placed brands’ orders at the factory, to pay $1 million. The Dallas Cowboys have paid $55,000. Nearly $1.8 million is still owed to the workers. Adidas has refused to contribute, instead providing a comparatively small amount of shopping vouchers to a local convenience store and sponsoring a job placement program which has only helped a small portion of workers. The workers have repeatedly rejected the food vouchers as an inappropriate means of compensation [Bold emphasis added]." [WRC Factory Investigation].
Three key points with respect to the food vouchers offered by Adidas instead of direct compensation:
"Worker representatives opposed this program as a means of aiding the PT Kizone workers, both because they do not consider it a legitimate substitute for paying workers what they are legally owed and because the food vouchers, as structured by adidas, were of very limited utility . . . ."
"The food vouchers adidas provided were designed in a manner that reflects disregard for the needs of the affected workers. Specifically, the food vouchers were a) valid only at a single chain of markets, Alfamart, which is similar to 7-11 and which workers do not patronize because they consider it to be overpriced, . . . ."
"From a legal and labor rights standpoint, in-kind assistance like food vouchers cannot be substituted for workers’ lawful compensation, except by agreement with workers’ chosen representatives."
The conduct of adidas stands in sharp contrast to Nike and the Dallas Cowboys.  One presumes: all in the name of serving their shareholders.

Oregon's school chief - clueless

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"How we rank in the nation is really, truly surprising to me," said Oregon schools chief Rob Saxton." [Oregon's high school graduation rate fourth worst in nation; no state graduates fewer white students on time].
Now he a new guy - but one would expect that statistics like graduation rates would be not only handy but relatively accurate.
He goes on to say: "It is a disappointment and an indicator of how much work we need to do. " He is disappointed? What about all the students that have failed to graduate and those to fail in the immediate and most likely foreseeable future.
And a duh to Mr. Saxton for this: "Your educational attainment is one of your best indicators of your opportunity to be successful, as a person, as a wage earner and as a taxpayer."
Of course Mr. Saxton doesn't grasp that the Oregon leadership cares little about public school graduation rates because their children go to the 'better' schools. And they are situated to see that their children go on to college and become the successful person, wage earner and taxpayer.
Another news story that is doomed to be repeated year after year.  I wonder how the Oregonian editorial board will comment?

Bitter email: right on point - maybe too many years late

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An excerpt from an UK father's email to his grown children: "Fulfilling careers based on your educations would have helped - but as yet none of you is what I would confidently term properly self-supporting. "Each of you is well able to earn a comfortable living and provide for your children, yet each of you has contrived to avoid even moderate achievement." ['Bitterly' Disappointed Dad's Email to Children Goes Viral].

Trending in crime - crime stats

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The crime rates for those crimes, one exception, that are significantly important are trending up. Murder, robbery, aggravated assault, and residential burglaries have significantly increased over last years' statistics. The one exception is rape which is down - but even 188, down from 194, as of 11/10/12, is unacceptable. That is about 16 rapes per month.

The crime statistics lag - the recent published statistics is for week 45. But in the next 7 weeks it is unlikely that crime rates will decease significantly to change the alarming upward trend in crime. Take a peek at the FlashAlert site for Portland's daily crime reports. The number of armed robberies are alarming. Banks, convenience stores, and pedestrians seem to be routinely robbed.

See the 2011 FBI Part 1 stats - Portland is definitely a trend setter.

Arguably all crimes ought to be publically tracked and editorialized by the local media - not just the regurgitation of selected news flashes. But especially those crimes that reflect a violent society and a disregard for property of others should be put in front our noses constantly.

28 Kasım 2012 Çarşamba

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It is not that their efforts have value, because they don't.  KGW reports on a middle-class champions protesting at Walmart. It is unclear how protesting at Walmart brings about a middle class, and I suspect they don't either.
Then there are the less-achievers that protest against fur. Under the protection of 'free speech' they attempt to force others with different views not to change their views, but to deny them the ability to express their views. 'You believe what I believe or else."
Finally, it isn't Portland without the cop-hating mentality found in the likes of Cop Watch and Peaceful Response Coalition. But I give them credit for voicing their concerns in a peaceful manner willing to brave the elements to do so.
Apparently they have been demonstrating against the Afghanistan invasion every Friday night at the same place since November 2001. That effort has been lost on those like myself who haven't been aware.
But their focus seems to have shifted to protests about the FBI 'sting' involving the Christmas tree bomber suspect. Now the protesters want to free him. Like that is going to happen.
These protesters apparently have this theory that FBI's 'sting' effort was a phony terrorism plot "used as an excuse by Portland to de facto join the (FBI's) Joint Terrorism Task Force." Huh?
Oddly enough I share their concern that the FBI might well have wrongly manipulated him.  But it seems something akin to the hypnosis idea that people under hypnosis will not do something they would not do otherwise.
One wonders whether this alleged terrorist would have been just as easily manipulated by actual terrorists that the FBI were emulating? Isn't it all about an individual's responsibility for his or her actions? Didn't he have many opportunities to step away from the FBI's actions?
It is not about some phony plot to get the Portland police in the Joint Terrorism Task Force. The question may well be - but for the FBI's efforts would he have become a terrorist? And while we are at it - is this the effort we want the FBI to be engaged in?  The answer to both questions seems to be yes.

"[C]ompliant citizenry"

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It is a BBC story about a Texas school district that had implemented the student wearing of a chip that monitors the student while on campus. A court - for obvious reasons - has issued a restraining against the school district.
[US school tag tracker project prompts court row].

Part of the lawsuit claimed violation of religious beliefs. The student's father: "Wearing such a barcoded tag can be seen as a mark of the beast as described in Revelation 13 in the Bible." The Rutherford Institute, a liberties campaign group, that filed the legal action sees it this way: "These 'student locator' programmes are ultimately aimed at getting students used to living in a total surveillance state where there will be no privacy, and wherever you go and whatever you text or email will be watched by the government."

From the Rutherford Institute site: “She’s not being treated equally,” said John Whitehead, who is representing Andrea Hernandez in an upcoming trial next week. “If she doesn’t have the chip, she can’t access the library, cafeteria, she was told she couldn’t vote for the homecoming king and queen.

A "compliant citizenry" makes it easier to govern.

Adidas' "food stamps" in Indonesia

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Companies like adidas with its USA headquarters in Portland have no affection for the workers that make adidas products. In Indonesia,  "[t]he owner of PT Kizone fled Indonesia in Janaury 2011 without paying workers $3.3 million in legally mandated severance. More than 2,800 workers are affected."
From Workers Rights Consortium: "an independent labor rights monitoring organization, conducting investigations of working conditions in factories around the globe." Their "purpose is to combat sweatshops and protect the rights of workers who make apparel and other products."
"The factory produced for Nike, adidas, the Dallas Cowboys, and other brands. Nike has paid the workers $500,000 and persuaded Green Textile, an intermediary that placed brands’ orders at the factory, to pay $1 million. The Dallas Cowboys have paid $55,000. Nearly $1.8 million is still owed to the workers. Adidas has refused to contribute, instead providing a comparatively small amount of shopping vouchers to a local convenience store and sponsoring a job placement program which has only helped a small portion of workers. The workers have repeatedly rejected the food vouchers as an inappropriate means of compensation [Bold emphasis added]." [WRC Factory Investigation].
Three key points with respect to the food vouchers offered by Adidas instead of direct compensation:
"Worker representatives opposed this program as a means of aiding the PT Kizone workers, both because they do not consider it a legitimate substitute for paying workers what they are legally owed and because the food vouchers, as structured by adidas, were of very limited utility . . . ."
"The food vouchers adidas provided were designed in a manner that reflects disregard for the needs of the affected workers. Specifically, the food vouchers were a) valid only at a single chain of markets, Alfamart, which is similar to 7-11 and which workers do not patronize because they consider it to be overpriced, . . . ."
"From a legal and labor rights standpoint, in-kind assistance like food vouchers cannot be substituted for workers’ lawful compensation, except by agreement with workers’ chosen representatives."
The conduct of adidas stands in sharp contrast to Nike and the Dallas Cowboys.  One presumes: all in the name of serving their shareholders.

Part 12 -- The New Intelligence Process: The Second Picture (Let's Kill The Intelligence Cycle)

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Part 1 -- Let's Kill The Intelligence CyclePart 2 -- "We''ll Return To Our Regularly Scheduled Programming In Just A Minute..."Part 3 -- The Disconnect Between Theory And PracticePart 4 -- The "Traditional" Intelligence Cycle And Its HistoryPart 5 -- Critiques Of The Cycle:  Which Intelligence Cycle?Part 6 -- Critiques Of The Cycle:  The Intelligence Cycle vs. RealityPart 7 -- Critiques Of The Cycle:  Cycles, Cycles And More Damn Cycles!Part 8 -- Tweaking The Intelligence CyclePart 9 -- Departures From The Intelligence Cycle
Part 10 -- The New Intelligence Process 
Part 11 -- The New Intelligence Process:  The First Picture


(Note:  I started this series of posts many months ago with the intent of completing it in short order.  Life, as it so often does, got in the way...  If you are new to the series or you have forgotten what the excitement was all about, I recommend beginning at the beginning.  For the rest of you, thank you for your patience!)


At the highest level, intelligence clearly supports the decisionmaking process.  Understanding this is a first step to understanding what drives intelligence requirements and what defines good intelligence products.  This is the message of the first picture.

But what about the details?  Broad context is fine as far as it goes, but how should the modern intelligence professional think about the process of getting intelligence done?  The second picture is designed to answer these questions.

The Second Picture

The single most important thing to notice about this image is that it imagines intelligence as a parallel rather than as a sequential process.  In this image of the process, there are four broad themes, or sub-processes, moving across time from a nebulous start to a fuzzy finish, with each theme rising to a high point in terms of emphasis at different points in the process.  Also intended by this image is the idea that each theme constantly reflects back and forth among the other three, influencing them as they each influence each other at every point in time.

Let me anticipate an initial objection to this picture -- that the intelligence process has a "start" and a "finish".  The intelligence function, to be sure, is an ongoing one and this was one of the implied lessons of the first picture.  Having made that point there, here I think it is important to focus on how intelligence products are actually generated.  In this respect, clearly, there is a point at which a question (an intelligence requirement) is asked.  It may be indistinct, poorly formed or otherwise unclear, but the focus of an intelligence effort does not exist in any meaningful way until there is a question that is, in some way, relevant to the decisionmaking process the intelligence unit supports.

Likewise, there is a finish.  It may take place in an elevator or in a formal brief, in a quick email or in a 50 page professionally printed and bound document, but answering those questions, i.e. the dissemination of the intelligence product, in whatever form, signifies the end of the process.  Yes, this process then begins immediately anew with new questions, and yes, there are always multiple questions being asked and answered simultaneously but neither observation invalidates the general model.

What of the sub-processes, though?  What are they and how do they relate to each other?  The four include mental modeling, collectionof relevant information, analysisof that information and production (i.e. how the intelligence will be communicated to the decisionmakers).
Mental Modelling


Until intelligence becomes a process where machines exclusively speak only to other machines, the mental models carried around by intelligence professionals and the decisionmakers they support will be an inseparable part of the intelligence process.  While most intelligence professionals readily acknowledge the strengths and weaknesses of human cognition, one of the most important qualities, in my mind, of this model is that it embeds these strengths and weaknesses directly into the process and acknowledges the influence of the human condition on intelligence.
These mental models typically contain at least two kinds of information,information already known and information that needs to be gathered.  Analysts rarely start with a completely blankslate.  In fact, a relatively high levelof general knowledge about the world has been demonstrated to significantlyimprove forecasting accuracy across any domain of knowledge, even highlyspecialized ones (Counter-intuitively, there is good evidence to suggest thathigh degrees of specialized knowledge, even within the domain under investigationdoes not add significantly to forecasting accuracy).  
The flip side of this coin is psychological bias, which has a way of leading analysts astray without them evenbeing aware of it.  An extensive overview of thesetopics is beyond the scope of this post but it is safe to say that, whether implicit or explicit, these models, containing what we know, what we think we need to know and how our minds will process all this information, emerge as the intelligence professionalthinks about how best to answer the question.   
Typically, at the outset of the intelligence process is is this modeling function that receives the most emphasis.  Figuring out how to think about the problem, understanding what kind of information needs to be collected and identifying key assumptions in both the questions and the model are necessary to some degree before the other functions can begin in earnest.  This is particularly true with a new or particularly complex requirement.  Furthermore, this modeling function is often informal or even implicit.  It is rare, in current practice, to see the mental model on which collection is planned and analysis conducted made explicit.  This is unfortunate since making the model explicit has proven, if done properly, to accelerate the other sub-processes, limit confusion within a team and produce more accurate forecasts.
Modeling should go on throughout the entire intelligence process, however.  As new information comes in or analysis gets produced, the model may well grow, shrink or morph as the concepts and the relationships between those concepts become more clear.  At some point (typically early) in the intelligence process, however, the emphasis shifts away from modeling and towards collecting, analyzing and producing.  While mental modeling doesn’t become unimportant, it does begin to lose importance as less time is devoted to modeling and more to the other three functions. 

Collection
 
Typically, the next sub-process to take precedence is collection.  Again, as with modeling, collection begins almost as soon as a rudimentary requirement forms in the mind of the intelligence professional.  People naturally begin to draw on their own memories and, if the question is complicated enough, begin to look for additional information to answer the question.  In more complex questions, where the information needs are clearly higher, the intelligence professional even comes up with a collection plan and tasks others to collect the information in order to help address the requirement. 
Collection, like modeling, never stops.  Intelligence professionals will continue to collect information relevant to the particular requirement right up to the day the final product is published.  In fact, collection on a particularly difficult problem (i.e. almost all of them) will often continue after publication.  Decisionmakers and analysts alike want to know if they were correct in their key assumptions, how accurate the final product was and all understand a need to continue to track particularly important requirements over time.  

All that said, collection does tend to lose importance relative to other functions over time.  Economists call this diminishing returns and it reflects a general rule that collection efforts, when considered across the entire spectrum of activities, from no knowledge about a subject to the current level of knowledge about a subject, typically add less and less genuinely new information over time.  Again, this is not to say that collection becomes unimportant, it is simply a reflection of the fact that other processes tend to increase in importance with respect to collection at some point in the process.
Analysis
The next sub-process to take precedence is analysis.  As with both modeling and collection, analysis begins almost immediately.  Tentative answers leap to mind and, in simple cases or where time is a severe constraint, these initial responses may have to do.  Analysis doesn’t really move to the forefront, however, until the requirement is understood and enough collection has taken place for the analyst to sense that adequate information exists to begin to go beyond tentative analyses and take a crack at answering the overall question or questions.

Analysis is where the raw material of intelligence, information, gets turned into products that address the decisionmaker’s requirements.  It is also the task most fraught with difficulties.  From the type of information used (typically unstructured) to the methods used to analyze this information to the form of the final product, analysts face enormous practical and psychological difficulties.  While the goal is clear – reduce the decisionmaker’s level of uncertainty – the best ways to get there are often unclear or rely on untested or poorly tested methods. 

Production

The final sub-process is production (which, for our purposes here, also includes dissemination).  As with all the other functions, it, too, begins on day one.  It is clearly, however, the least important function at the outset of the intelligence process.  Still, intelligence professionals do give some thought (and experienced professionals have learned to give more than a little thought) up front to the form and nature of the final product at the beginning of the process.  

Requirements typically come with an implied or explicit “deliverable” associated with them.  Is the answer, for example, to the intelligence requirement to be in the form of a briefing or is it to be a written report?  Knowing this at the outset helps the intelligence professionals tasked with answering the requirement to plan and to identify items along the way that will make the production of the final product easier.  For example, knowing that the final product is to be a briefing, gives the intelligence professionals associated with the project time to identify relevant graphics during the project rather than going back and finding such graphics at the last minute.  Likewise, if the final briefing is to be a written document, the time necessary to write and edit such a product might be substantial and this, in turn, would need to be factored into the planning process.

Production is an incredibly important but often under-appreciated function within the intelligence process.  If intelligence products are not accessible, i.e. packaged with the decisionmaker in mind, then they are unlikely to be read or used.  Under such circumstances, all of the hard work done by intelligence professionals up to this point is wasted.  On the other hand, there is a fine line between making a document or other type of intelligence report accessible and selling a particular position or way of thinking about a problem.  Intelligence professionals have to steer clear of those production methods and “tricks” that can come across as advertising or advocacy.  Production values should not compromise the goal of objectivity.

Likewise, some intelligence professionals associate high production values with pandering to the decisionmaker.  These professionals see adding multimedia, graphics, color and other design features to an intelligence product to be unnecessary “chrome” or “bling”.  These professionals, many from earlier generations, think that intelligence products “should stand on their own” and that the ease with which such “tricks” are used in modern production is not an excuse to deviate from time-honored traditions in production. 

The guiding principle here, of course, is not what the intelligence professional thinks but what the decisionmaker the intelligence professional is supporting thinks.  Some decisionmakers will, of course, prefer their intelligence products in a simple text-based format.  Others, including many business professionals, will want less text and more supporting data, including charts and graphs.  Some (and the demand for this may well increase in the future) will want their reports in a video format for use on their personal multimedia device. 

Intelligence professionals in general, then, will need to have a wider variety of production skills in the future and, while production concerns do not take precedence until closer to the end of the project, the need to think about them at some level permeates the entire project.
Next:  The Whole Picture

Part 13 - The Whole Picture (Let's Kill The Intelligence Cycle)

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Part 1 -- Let's Kill The Intelligence CyclePart 2 -- "We''ll Return To Our Regularly Scheduled Programming In Just A Minute..."Part 3 -- The Disconnect Between Theory And PracticePart 4 -- The "Traditional" Intelligence Cycle And Its HistoryPart 5 -- Critiques Of The Cycle:  Which Intelligence Cycle?Part 6 -- Critiques Of The Cycle:  The Intelligence Cycle vs. RealityPart 7 -- Critiques Of The Cycle:  Cycles, Cycles And More Damn Cycles!Part 8 -- Tweaking The Intelligence CyclePart 9 -- Departures From The Intelligence Cycle
Part 10 -- The New Intelligence Process 
Part 11 -- The New Intelligence Process:  The First Picture 
Part 12 -- The New Intelligence Process:  The Second Picture 



In the end, whether you accept this new model of the intelligence process or not, it is clear that the hoary image of the intelligence cycle needs to be put to rest.  Whether you would do that with full honors or, as I advocate, with the use of explosives, is irrelevant.  The cycle, as should be clear by now, needs to go.

To summarize, the cycle fails on three counts at least:  We cannot define what it is and what it isn't, it does not match the way intelligence actually works in the 21st Century and it does not help us explain our processes to the decisionmakers we support.  Efforts to fix these flaws have not worked and, furthermore, this is all widely recognized by those who have studied the role and impact of the cycle. 

In addition, the community of intelligence professionals (and I include academics who study intelligence in this group) will have to be the ones to lay the cycle to rest.  Not only does no one else care, but also the community of intelligence professionals has, as the WMD report noted, "an almost perfect record of resisting external recommendations." 

Yes, the interregnum will be difficult.  The decisionmakers we support, the professionals with whom we work and the students we teach will all ask -- and deserve -- good answers.  These answers will come slowly at first.  In fact, at the outset, we may only be able to "teach the controversy", as it were.

Hopefully, over time, though, the need for a new vision of the intelligence process will drive intellectual curiosity and, through the iterative process of creation and destruction, something more robust will emerge; an improved model that will stand the tests of the next 60 years.   While I have clearly already placed my bets in this regard, I will be happy if the community of intelligence professionals merely recognizes the need to move beyond its historical constraints, accepts this siren's call for what it is, plugs its ears and sails off in a new direction - any direction.

Because anything would be better than continuing to pretend that the world has not really changed since the 1940's.   Anything would be better than continuing to spend countless wasted hours explaining and attempting to justify something that should have been retired long ago.  Anything, in short, would be better than continuing to lie to ourselves.

27 Kasım 2012 Salı

112 Bangladesh workers died making your clothes

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It is not that it was unexpected.
"The Tazreen fire is the latest in a series of deadly blazes at garment factories in Bangladesh, where more than 700 workers, many making clothes for U.S. consumers, have died in factory fires in the past five years. As previously reported by ABC News, Bangladesh has some of the cheapest labor in the world and some of the most deplorable working conditions." [Fire Kills 112 Workers Making Clothes for US Brands].
From the original ABC News report:
"The industry and parent brands in the U.S. have been warned again and again about the extreme danger to workers in Bangladesh and they have not taken action," said Scott Nova, executive director of the Worker Rights Consortium, an American group working to improve conditions at factories abroad that make clothes for U.S. companies. Nova said the fire was the most deadly in the history of the Bangladesh apparel industry, and "one of the worst in any country." [Link added].
The reason jobs are outsourced is that companies can use "some of the cheapest labor in the world" and make the workers work in "some of the most deplorable working conditions." While there is a tendency to blame only the corporations - consumers are much to blame too.

Boycotting goods made under such working conditions would a good step to leveling the playing field for all workers. But then your Wal-Mart, Sears and Sean "Diddy" Combs clothes would cost more - or would it?.



Failure to communicate

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Is it any wonder that we don't quite understand each other. See the same paragraph from two different sources. Notice the difficulty to communicate even the essence of the story while legitimately copying a news story.

From ABC News:

"READ the original ABC News report.

"The industry and parent brands in the U.S. have been warned again and again about the extreme danger to workers in Bangladesh and they have not taken action," said Scott Nova, executive director of the Worker Rights Consortium, an American group working to improve conditions at factories abroad that make clothes for U.S. companies. Nova said the fire was the most deadly in the history of the Bangladesh apparel industry, and "one of the worst in any country."


From The Muslim News.

"READ a strange ABC News report.

The attention and primogenitor brands in a U.S. have been warned again and again about a impassioned risk to workers in Bangladesh and they have not taken action,” pronounced Scott Nova, executive executive of a Worker Rights Consortium, an American organisation operative to urge conditions during factories abroad that make garments for U.S. companies. Nova pronounced a glow was a many lethal in a story of a Bangladesh attire industry, and “one of a misfortune in any country.”

Adidas' "food stamps" in Indonesia

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Companies like adidas with its USA headquarters in Portland have no affection for the workers that make adidas products. In Indonesia,  "[t]he owner of PT Kizone fled Indonesia in Janaury 2011 without paying workers $3.3 million in legally mandated severance. More than 2,800 workers are affected."
From Workers Rights Consortium: "an independent labor rights monitoring organization, conducting investigations of working conditions in factories around the globe." Their "purpose is to combat sweatshops and protect the rights of workers who make apparel and other products."
"The factory produced for Nike, adidas, the Dallas Cowboys, and other brands. Nike has paid the workers $500,000 and persuaded Green Textile, an intermediary that placed brands’ orders at the factory, to pay $1 million. The Dallas Cowboys have paid $55,000. Nearly $1.8 million is still owed to the workers. Adidas has refused to contribute, instead providing a comparatively small amount of shopping vouchers to a local convenience store and sponsoring a job placement program which has only helped a small portion of workers. The workers have repeatedly rejected the food vouchers as an inappropriate means of compensation [Bold emphasis added]." [WRC Factory Investigation].
Three key points with respect to the food vouchers offered by Adidas instead of direct compensation:
"Worker representatives opposed this program as a means of aiding the PT Kizone workers, both because they do not consider it a legitimate substitute for paying workers what they are legally owed and because the food vouchers, as structured by adidas, were of very limited utility . . . ."
"The food vouchers adidas provided were designed in a manner that reflects disregard for the needs of the affected workers. Specifically, the food vouchers were a) valid only at a single chain of markets, Alfamart, which is similar to 7-11 and which workers do not patronize because they consider it to be overpriced, . . . ."
"From a legal and labor rights standpoint, in-kind assistance like food vouchers cannot be substituted for workers’ lawful compensation, except by agreement with workers’ chosen representatives."
The conduct of adidas stands in sharp contrast to Nike and the Dallas Cowboys.  One presumes: all in the name of serving their shareholders.

Child sexual abuse - changes to mandatory reporting troublesome

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The new law expands the list of those mandated by law to report suspected child abuse. The extant and extensive list of mandatory reporters will now includes college employees. The media reports indicate that the expansion is constrained to suspected child sex abuse, but that limitation seems unlikely because the law relates to the reporting of "child abuse."
Apparently it was prompted, at least in part, by the Penn State incidents. But the new law is a hindsight law that at best may convince the general public that our legislature cares. It is also the means that the well-intentioned use to solve problems - pass a law and problem solved.
The new law (I haven't seen the text) apparently extends beyond any suspected child abuse that a college worker might see in his or her ordinary duties to abuse that is suspected anywhere 24/7.
Assuming that the law could or should be enforced - a college employee has no particular attribute that qualifies him or her to spot suspected abuse. If one (mandatory reporter or not) has firsthand knowledge - he or she will not be encouraged or discouraged by a law - their moral code will be the determination to report.
The Penn State case involved university officials who, it is argued, knew of the reported sexual abuse yet failed to call the police. Apparently the argument is that they covered up the event to protect the university. If true then their moral code would not have been any different with a mandatory reporting law - the university would still be their first priority.
Many people it is said to stay quiet when they suspect or even witness child abuse. Why? "Mostly, they were afraid -- afraid of being wrong, afraid of retaliation, afraid of making things worse for the child."  [Mandatory reporting: Pass 'Penn State bill' on child abuse, then keep talking].
Those are good reasons that will not be changed by mandatory reporting. E.g., it is not unreasonable for people to assume that they might be wrong, and if so, realize that the consequences may be severe. See the Day-care sex-abuse hysteria case. it is an extreme case, but it demonstrates how a claim can take the justice system down the wrong path
But I would add too that determining suspected abuse is a legal term of art that can only be defined in court only after the abuse has occurred. It is the term "suspect" that offers too much ambiguity for effective enforcement. Anything short of firsthand knowledge will be difficult to assess as to culpability. How much suspicion is needed for a valid report that can be legitimately acted upon?

And of course there is the difficulty that we use the term "abuse" as if it has universal and obvious meaning - it doesn't. Define it as you might in a statute - there will be few that will know of the statute or the meaning contained therein. And even with 'training' it is unlikely that anyone will remember the definition with its limitations.
It is important to note too that the penalty is a fine. One cannot expect that a fine will be levied except only in a hindsight situation; thus, a failed report is unlikely to come to light except after the fact, the abuse still occurred.
But, the law may establish a legal duty to report that may be a basis for a lawsuit for either a report or a failure to report. Oh yes - the law offers protection in the form of immunity from liabilities, but defending or prosecuting a legal action is not inexpensive.
A little out of context, child abuse, especially sexual abuse, is too often misused by those with an agenda. As an attorney who has been involved in a goodly number of child custody cases - reported child physical abuse is often used to gain an advantage by a parent or another close to the action. Yes - even sexual abuse comes into play when, e.g., well-intentioned grandparents claim knowledge of sexual abuse. A father in a custody action who bathes his very young child  is risking his custody rights.
However, my concerns apply to any law that mandates citizens reporting on other citizens. And that is where the new expansion takes us. It is not difficult to support a reporting mandate where that reporter is by his or her profession uniquely qualified to spot abuse, e.g., a pediatrician.
But,  "[e]ven doctors under-report, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. One 2008 survey found that only 31 percent of Americans contacted the police or child services when confronted with suspected abuse."  Presumably, these doctors are required to report suspected abuse. But, even if not, will mandated reporting change the under-reporting?
Oregonian's Susan Nielsen: "This problem can't be fixed solely by passing tougher mandatory-reporting laws . . . . It also requires tackling the fear and mistrust that fuel people's reluctance to speak out."  But with pediatricians failing to speak out -it may point to the fact that there is more to the failure to report than reluctance or fear.
Two recent cases in the news - Jimmy Savile (UK) and Jerry Sandusky (USA) demonstrate a certain cognitive dissonance. And we see it nearly everyday in the media when someone is arrested for some heinous crime - those who know the person just can't believe hat he or she would or could have done it.
No solution in sight - but mandatory reporting or expanding the list of mandatory reporters is not the answer. Stepping, even if inching, toward a society that encourages its citizens to report on one another weakens the overall fabric of a democratic society.

Why McMinnville? Where is Portland?

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Oh that's right - Portland gave up trying. See McMinnville only Oregon finalist for federal Race to the Top district grant.

What might McMinnville receive in the way of federal money? "The U.S. Department of Education plans to choose 15 to 25 winners by Dec. 31. Awards will range from $40 million for large districts down to $5 million."

Take notice too that in September 2010 "McMinnville, won $20 million [...] in a federal competition to improve the quality of teaching and to test performance pay for principals and teachers."

Why can't Portland Public Schools compete?

26 Kasım 2012 Pazartesi

AK47 Bank Bandit, Wounded Police Officer, FBI Reward

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TheFBI and law enforcement officials spanning three separate regions in thewestern United States continue to seek public assistance relative to anunidentified armed bank robber now linked to three bank robberies, the mostrecent of which occurred in the Seattle area on July 6, 2012. Following theinitial robbery that occurred in Chino, California, on February 29, 2012, thesuspect shot a police officer with the Chino Police Department, seriouslywounding him.
Ineach robbery, the suspect brandishes an AK-47–style assault rifle with a drummagazine. The suspect is seen in bank surveillance video and photographsdressed in tactical gear over a dark-colored, short-sleeved collared shirt andblue pants. He also wears a black full-face ski mask, a blue ballistic vest,and/or a green mesh vest marked “Sheriff.” The suspect is known to lawenforcement as the AK-47 Bandit. A reward of up to $20,000 is being offered inexchange for information leading to the arrest of the suspect known as theAK-47 Bandit. Anyone with information as to the identity or whereabouts of theAK-47 Bandit should refrain from approaching the suspect and is urged tocontact law enforcement immediately. In Los Angeles, the FBI may be reached 24hours a day at 888-CANT-HIDE (888-228-8443).
Photosand a description are available at the following link:http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/unknown/unknown-suspect-17/view
AWanted by the FBI podcast about the robber is available at:http://www.fbi.gov/news/podcasts/wanted/ak-47-bandit-strikes-again/view